Nate Silver 538 Politics Prediction. Updated every two hours, this is an electoral map projection derived from the fivethirtyeight 2020 election forecast. How various breakdowns in the national popular vote correspond to the most likely distributions of house seats by party,.

See how each party’s forecasted seat total and chances of controlling the senate have changed over time. When the dates of tracking polls from the same pollster overlap, only the most recent version is shown.